This information can be integrated into population models to determine risk of extinction in the absence of immigration and emigration ( Fig 1). At the species level, they enable the effect of global warming on demographic traits (fecundity, mortality, density dependent population growth rate, etc.) to be directly estimated. Mesocosms have a central role to play in predicting the impact of climate on different ecological levels, ranging from individual species to whole communities (and potentially to entire ecosystems). Integrating Mesocosms with Ecological Models to Improve Predictions of the Ecological Consequences of Climate Change Two papers recently published in PLOS Biology highlight why mesocosm experiments provide such powerful tools for identifying the ecological processes that drive population- and community-level responses to climate change and for testing fundamental principles of ecology.īox 1. As ecological climate change research moves to increasingly more mechanistic approaches, experiments are today being constructed at ever larger scales with higher biocomplexity, with the ultimate aim being to parameterize, test, and refine models that accurately predict the effects of climate change on biodiversity ( Box 1). For example, warming experiments have provided important stimulus for further research on trait plasticity and resilience to climate change, the importance of synergies among drivers of endangerment, the role of temperature and habitat isolation on community composition, and the impact of global change on ecosystem function. They do this by providing tractable yet ecologically realistic bridges between simplified experimental conditions and the real world. In contrast, laboratory microcosm (or small-scale field experiments) and larger scale mesocosm experiments allow rigorous testing of climate impacts on populations and communities, improving our theoretical understanding of ecological responses to likely climate shifts. Another problem is the lack of field-based experimental approaches (e.g., translocation experiments) in climate ecological research, which can directly attribute ecological mechanisms to biotic responses to different climatic conditions using cause-effect relationships. This is partly because resurvey and monitoring studies inevitably focus on near-term outcomes, meaning that they are typically unable to consider species responses to large shifts in climate-those similar in magnitude to those predicted for the 21st century and beyond. Although these studies have increased our knowledge of how species can vary their phenologies, distributions, abundances, and phenotypes in response to climate change, linking these observations to long-term effects on species’ persistence, community structure, and ecosystem function has proven difficult. ĭata from natural history collections, repeated surveys, and other monitoring activities continue to be used to study biotic responses to 20th century climate change. A more evidence-focused approach to climate impacts research is required to gain deeper insights into the likely effects of shifts in climate on biodiversity over the coming decades to centuries-and, through these insights, to design effective adaptation strategies that mitigate climate-driven biodiversity loss. Models forecast that human-induced climate change is likely to cause extinctions and alter diversity patterns, directly and in synergy with other drivers of global change (habitat destruction, overexploitation, and introduced species), but the range of estimates for its total impact remains worryingly large. Blending these theoretical and empirical results with computational models will improve forecasts of biodiversity loss and altered ecosystem processes due to climate change. show that human-induced climate change could, in some cases, actually enhance the diversity of local communities, increasing productivity. Using aquatic mesocosms, Yvon-Durocher et al. provide the first direct evidence that future global warming can increase extinction risk for temperate ectotherms. Using a large-scale terrestrial warming experiment, Bestion et al. Two recent studies show how mesocosm experiments can hasten understanding of the ecological consequences of climate change on species’ extinction risk, community structure, and ecosystem functions. Currently, we know more about how future climates are likely to shift across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes. Understanding, predicting, and mitigating the impacts of climate change on biodiversity poses one of the most crucial challenges this century.
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